Friday, January 23, 2026 |
Photo – Five-day forecast – Courtesy National Weather Service, Cheyenne
The National Weather Service says not to expect much snow this season, raising the likelihood of summer drought conditions.
Wyoming has been experiencing a much warmer and drier winter than normal. Speaking to Bigfoot99, Cheyenne National Weather Service Meteorologist Mike Natoli explained that the unusual weather is the result of a long‑lasting high‑pressure system.
Natoli said determining the exact cause of the high‑pressure system is difficult, but La Niña is unlikely to be a contributing factor.
The National Weather Service meteorologist said the high-pressure system has been deflecting cold air and potential snowstorms to the north and east for most of the season. However, a cold front is moving through the area, bringing the possibility of several inches of snow in the higher elevations of Carbon County. Unfortunately, Natoli said the potential snowfall is unlikely to make much of a difference to the region’s depleted river basins.
Natoli added that the basin snowpacks aren’t at record lows, but they’re very close. Mountain totals are a little less dire, but the National Weather Service meteorologist said the good news is offset by the well‑below‑average snow at lower elevations.
Natoli said the winter season is already halfway over. Unless our region receives above‑average precipitation before spring, the area is likely to face drought conditions this summer.
Natoli said the warm, dry weather is also contributing to drought risk in another way. Even with heavy late‑winter snowfall, the dry soil would absorb much of the moisture, increasing the chances of summer drought.
On a positive note, Natoli said the low mountain snowpack will not significantly increase the risk of summer wildfires. Heavy spring rain, typically our area’s wettest season, may help reduce fire danger. However, the current lack of moisture has increased the chances of unusual winter fires.
Natoli said current weather models show the warm, high‑pressure zone is unlikely to break up anytime soon. The National Weather Service meteorologist added that the forecast does not include any snowfall for at least the next few weeks.
Natoli said models show the high‑pressure zone may break down sometime in mid‑February or early March, allowing more typical cold weather and snow to return to the region. However, the National Weather Service meteorologist warned that earlier forecasts predicted a similar shift that never occurred. In the meantime, our area will continue to experience unusually warm and dry weather.
